Bitcoin
The new purchase is entirely Bitcoin.
- BTC · 100%
92 supported meetings · new purchase only
Fed decision breakdown · September 2026 · draft
Option 1 of 2
Add before the rate decision
Put more of the remaining cash to work before the interest-rate announcement.
What you gain
More participation if the rally continues before confirmation.
The tradeoff
More capital exposed if the market turns against you.
01 / 02
Compare the gains, losses and unused cash each choice produced, then see what adding would mean for the whole crypto portfolio.
02 / The test
We examined 92 interest-rate decisions to compare buying before with waiting.
We compared buying before the interest-rate announcement with waiting for no hike and Bitcoin’s reaction. We tested Bitcoin, Ethereum and three altcoin baskets, then calculated what each choice did to a portfolio already half invested.
Bitcoin daily price · USD · logarithmic scale
92 tested meetings marked in blue · Daily price observations, not OHLC candles. Fed markers show the tested meeting dates.
View tested dates and coverage
The 2018-05-02 and 2021-12-15 interest-rate decisions are included in these results. Bytecoin or Safemoon was removed only from the affected basket; the other nine coins were reweighted equally. Bitcoin covers 92 meetings; direct asset comparisons use the same 72 meetings.
- 2015-01-28
- 2015-03-18
- 2015-04-29
- 2015-06-17
- 2015-07-29
- 2015-09-17
- 2015-10-28
- 2015-12-16
- 2016-01-27
- 2016-03-16
- 2016-04-27
- 2016-06-15
- 2016-07-27
- 2016-09-21
- 2016-11-02
- 2016-12-14
- 2017-02-01
- 2017-03-15
- 2017-05-03
- 2017-06-14
- 2017-07-26
- 2017-09-20
- 2017-11-01
- 2017-12-13
- 2018-01-31
- 2018-03-21
- 2018-05-02
- 2018-06-13
- 2018-08-01
- 2018-09-26
- 2018-11-08
- 2018-12-19
- 2019-01-30
- 2019-03-20
- 2019-05-01
- 2019-06-19
- 2019-07-31
- 2019-09-18
- 2019-10-30
- 2019-12-11
- 2020-01-29
- 2020-04-29
- 2020-06-10
- 2020-07-29
- 2020-09-16
- 2020-11-05
- 2020-12-16
- 2021-01-27
- 2021-03-17
- 2021-04-28
- 2021-06-16
- 2021-07-28
- 2021-09-22
- 2021-11-03
- 2021-12-15
- 2022-01-26
- 2022-03-16
- 2022-05-04
- 2022-06-15
- 2022-07-27
- 2022-09-21
- 2022-11-02
- 2022-12-14
- 2023-02-01
- 2023-03-22
- 2023-05-03
- 2023-06-14
- 2023-07-26
- 2023-09-20
- 2023-11-01
- 2023-12-13
- 2024-01-31
- 2024-03-20
- 2024-05-01
- 2024-06-12
- 2024-07-31
- 2024-09-18
- 2024-11-07
- 2024-12-18
- 2025-01-29
- 2025-03-19
- 2025-05-07
- 2025-06-18
- 2025-07-30
- 2025-09-17
- 2025-10-29
- 2025-12-10
- 2026-01-28
- 2026-03-18
- 2026-04-29
- 2026-06-17
- 2026-07-29
What we tested
1 / 6
Altcoin composition changed by meeting. Pies show the selection for the dated example, not a permanent portfolio. The comparison research retains documented constituent exclusions.
Your existing BTC and ETH holdings are included later, in the whole-portfolio comparison.
Coverage: 92 BTC / 87 ETH / 72 alt events. Direct comparisons use the same 72 meetings. Results are measured 21 days after the announcement: a research checkpoint for a days-to-weeks decision, not an exit signal.
03 / What influences the decision
What influences the decision?
The September 8 CME FedWatch snapshot priced a hike at 60.4% and a hold at 39.6%. These estimates come from traded interest-rate futures. They give us a starting point for the rate decision; our historical tests compare what happened to the crypto purchases.
Expecting a rate hike is not enough to call a Bitcoin sell-off.
Rate surprise at 20 hike announcements · meetings
View data table
| Choice | Value |
|---|---|
| Within ±2 basis points | 14 |
| Outside ±2 basis points | 6 |
At 14 of 20 hike announcements, expectations for that meeting’s rate moved by no more than 2 basis points. The hike itself added little surprise about the rate. So before I use “a hike is likely” as a reason to avoid buying, I need to separate the announced rate from new information and look at the crypto results.
Source and test notes
SF Fed US Monetary Policy Event-Study Database, completed research. MP1 is the current-meeting policy-rate surprise, not a raw contract-price change. 20 hike announcements; 14 within ±2 basis points, 6 outside. One basis point is 0.01 percentage points. This measures announcement-window surprise, not the crypto return or expectations a week earlier. CME FedWatch capture: 2026-09-08 04:30:38 CT, 60.4% hike / 39.6% hold. Refresh before recording. https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/data-and-indicators/us-monetary-policy-event-study-database/ ; https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Buying the recent small-coin winners lost money at most meetings.
Historical returns · mean and median · % · Days from rate decision: 21
Mean return1.11%
Median return-6.71%
Cumulative return on starting capital, including trading fees. Lines summarize the same 72 purchases at each day; neither is one actual portfolio.
View data table
| Days from rate decision | Mean return | Median return |
|---|---|---|
| -7 | -0.5 | -0.5 |
| -6 | -0.76 | -0.14 |
| -5 | -0.07 | -0.04 |
| -4 | 0.46 | -0.63 |
| -3 | 0.24 | -0.73 |
| -2 | 1.11 | -0 |
| -1 | -0.35 | -1.32 |
| 0 | -1.32 | -1.65 |
| 1 | -0.41 | -1.76 |
| 2 | -0.18 | -1.96 |
| 3 | 0.35 | -0.44 |
| 4 | 0.52 | 0.75 |
| 5 | 0.27 | -1.2 |
| 6 | 0.15 | -1.11 |
| 7 | -0.13 | -0.91 |
| 8 | -0.37 | -1.13 |
| 9 | -0.54 | -0.92 |
| 10 | 1.26 | -1.59 |
| 11 | 1.41 | -2.33 |
| 12 | 1.46 | -1.55 |
| 13 | 1.13 | -3.11 |
| 14 | 1.47 | -1.54 |
| 15 | 2.35 | -3.92 |
| 16 | 1.71 | -7.19 |
| 17 | 2.16 | -5.44 |
| 18 | 2.03 | -5.42 |
| 19 | 2.68 | -6.02 |
| 20 | 2.48 | -5.39 |
| 21 | 1.11 | -6.71 |
The average small-coin basket return was positive, but 45 of 72 basket purchases lost money. These are different meetings, not winners and losers inside one basket. Recent gains alone did not make this a consistently profitable way to buy before the rate decision. I still need rules for which alts to own and when to exit.
Source and test notes
Completed cross-asset-v3 study, same 72 meetings, day −7 to day +21, fees included. Eligible sub-$1B coins ranked by prior 30-day returns. This does not measure investor favorites or buying flows. Point-in-time membership with documented retrospective execution/continuity exclusions; genuine crashes retained.
04 / Make the call
What does each choice mean for my money?
No complete comparison is loaded. Add the validated research JSON to Prepared data in Framer. Buy-before and waiting results must use the same meetings.
One interest-rate decision does not tell me how to manage a portfolio.
This analysis helps me assess extra exposure around the rate announcement. My system still handles what I own, when I enter and when I exit between meetings.
Opens the existing Crypto Gameplan resource page.