5-Minute Market Regime Checklist
The Top 50 Coins TradingView List
The 3-Signal Altseason Check
How to separate an isolated altcoin pump from an emerging market-wide rotation in five minutes.
Watch the video
The one-page answer
An isolated altcoin pump is not an altcoin season. A stronger signal appears when participation spreads across the market, onchain activity confirms it, and the CMC index catches up.
Check the three signals in order: price breadth, active-address breadth, then the CMC Altcoin Season Index.
Signal | Question | Tool | ON threshold |
|---|---|---|---|
1. Price breadth | Is the rally spreading? | AlphaNatt or ChartInspect | 60% or more above the 20-day MA |
2. Active addresses | Is usage confirming it? | growthepie | 60% or more of checked networks growing over 30 days |
3. CMC index | Has it become altcoin season? | CoinMarketCap | 75 or higher |
The first signal is the early warning. The second checks whether activity supports the move. The third labels the market state after enough altcoins have already outperformed Bitcoin.
Why the CMC timer isn’t enough
The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index measures how many leading altcoins have beaten Bitcoin over the previous 90 days. That makes it useful for naming the current market state.
It is not designed to catch the first signs of rotation. The index needs enough relative performance to accumulate before it reaches the altcoin-season threshold.
By the time CMC confirms an altcoin season, part of the rotation may already have happened.
Use price breadth for the early warning, active-address breadth for confirmation, and CMC for the final state label.
Signal 1: Is the rally spreading?
Tools: AlphaNatt on TradingView or ChartInspect market breadth
Metric: the percentage of tracked cryptocurrencies trading above their 20-day moving average.
How to check it
Open the breadth indicator.
Use the daily timeframe.
Set the moving-average length to 20 days.
Record the current breadth percentage.
Mark the signal ON at 60% or higher.
Breadth reading | Interpretation |
|---|---|
Below 40% | Participation is narrow or weak. |
40% to 59% | Participation is improving but not confirmed. |
60% or higher | Participation is broad. Signal ON. |
Very high and falling | Breadth may be narrowing after an established rally. |
Basket limitation: AlphaNatt uses a fixed 40-coin Binance basket. Treat it as an accessible approximation of the tested dynamic top-50 rule.
Signal 2: Is real activity confirming the move?
Tool: growthepie Active Addresses
Metric: the share of checked Ethereum and Layer 2 networks with positive active-address growth over 30 days.
How to check it
Choose at least six established networks with comparable 30-day data.
Record active addresses now and 30 days ago.
Mark each network as growing or not growing.
Divide the number of growing networks by the number checked.
Mark the signal ON at 60% or higher.
Network | Active addresses now | 30 days ago | Growing? |
|---|---|---|---|
Ethereum | ___ | ___ | Yes / No |
Base | ___ | ___ | Yes / No |
Arbitrum | ___ | ___ | Yes / No |
Optimism | ___ | ___ | Yes / No |
Polygon | ___ | ___ | Yes / No |
Other tracked network | ___ | ___ | Yes / No |
Example: Four growing networks out of six equals 67%. The confirmation is ON.
Read the proxy correctly
growthepie covers the Ethereum ecosystem, not the whole altcoin market. This is a public confirmation proxy rather than an exact reproduction of the research panel.
An active address is not the same as a person. Bots, cheap transactions, and airdrop farming can inflate one network. Measuring breadth across several networks reduces the influence of one distorted reading.
Signal 3: Has altseason arrived?
Tool: CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index
Metric: the percentage of the top 100 eligible altcoins that beat Bitcoin over 90 days.
CMC reading | Market state |
|---|---|
Below 25 | Bitcoin season |
25 to 74 | Transitional market |
75 or higher | CMC-defined altcoin season |
Treat 75 as a classification threshold, not a magical market boundary. The direction adds context:
Rising: participation is spreading.
High and stable: altcoin strength is established.
High and falling: participation may be narrowing.
Record the score after the first two signals. CMC tells you where the market already is.
Combine the readings
Price breadth | Active addresses | CMC | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
OFF | OFF | Low | No broad rotation |
ON | OFF | Low | Price-led rotation, not confirmed by usage |
OFF | ON | Low | Onchain growth without market participation |
ON | ON | Below 75 | Emerging altcoin rotation |
ON | ON | 75+ | Confirmed altcoin season |
OFF | ON or OFF | 75+ | Established season may be losing breadth |
Emerging rotation and confirmed altcoin season are different stages. The first two signals can turn on before CMC reaches 75. A high CMC reading with weak price breadth can also warn that participation is narrowing.
The five-minute weekly routine
Record crypto market breadth.
Count the growthepie networks with positive 30-day address growth.
Record the CMC index.
Compare all three readings with last week.
Assign the current stage.
Week | Breadth | Growing networks | CMC index | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Week 1 | ___ | ___ | ___ | ___ |
Week 2 | ___ | ___ | ___ | ___ |
Week 3 | ___ | ___ | ___ | ___ |
Week 4 | ___ | ___ | ___ | ___ |
Check once per week at the same time. The four-week trend is more useful than repeated intraday readings.
This week’s Altseason Check
Market breadth: ___%
Breadth warning: ON / OFF
Networks with growing active addresses: ___ out of ___
Onchain confirmation: ON / OFF
CMC index: ___
CMC state: Bitcoin / Transition / Altcoin
Final stage: No rotation / Price-led / Emerging / Confirmed / Narrowing
Limits and methodology
What the framework does not tell you
Which altcoin to buy
Whether an asset is fairly valued
Whether a confirmed altcoin season is still early
Whether every active address belongs to a real user
How to size a position or manage risk
Why these three signals
105 rules were tested across 60 indicator families.
Price breadth was the strongest independent public signal.
Onchain activity improved the price-breadth result when used as confirmation.
The CMC-style index worked better as a state measure than as an early warning.
Funding, stablecoins, dominance, and single relative-strength ratios were not strong enough to join the final framework.
This framework is a market-regime checklist, not a trading system. It does not guarantee returns or replace position sizing, asset research, and risk management.
For educational and research purposes only. Not financial advice.
FROM INSIGHT TO PROCESS
Turn the market stage into a portfolio decision
The checklist tells you which market stage you're in. Inside Crypto Gameplan, we connect that context to portfolio decisions, risk limits, and asset-level analysis.
Education and research. You make and execute every final decision.
© 2026 Crypto Gameplan. All Rights Reserved.