Weekly Market Outlook: Bitcoin & S&P 500

Bitcoin: Momentum Is Building, But No Full Buy Signal Yet

A custom momentum indicator for Bitcoin is starting to turn positive — though that can easily reverse.

Position is currently 100% cash, with no Bitcoin allocation.

The DCA strategy just gave its first real buy signal in years, but conditions aren't fully aligned yet: price dipped below the 200-week moving average, but not below the Realized Price, so it isn't a full "send it" signal.

A deeper move, ideally below $60k, would build more confidence before increasing allocation.

S&P 500: Warning Signs of a Rotation

The S&P 500 is stuck in a low-volatility range without making new highs — historically a warning sign rather than healthy continuation.

Rotation is showing up out of high-risk momentum stocks into safer, lower-volatility assets.

The current setup resembles periods that preceded past market corrections.

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500: Early Signs of Rotation Into Crypto

The Bitcoin/SPX ratio tracks money flow between risk asset classes.

Early signs point to capital rotating out of expensive high-risk stocks and into Bitcoin and crypto.

This doesn't mean an explosive move is guaranteed — just that the setup is becoming more interesting.

Macro Risk: Iran Ceasefire Ends, Oil Spikes

The ceasefire between the US and Iran has ended; Brent crude oil futures jumped sharply on the news.

Global oil stockpiles outside of China are running low — a prolonged Middle East conflict could trigger a real energy crisis.

An energy crisis would be bad for all risk assets, not just stocks or crypto.

Bonds & Inflation: Yields Climbing, Fed in Focus

10-year and especially 30-year US government bond yields continue to rise.

Inflation expectations aren't cooling, which raises the odds of the Fed needing to hold or hike instead of cut.

Last week's actual data was more positive: CPI and the inflation rate both came in below consensus, alongside a "bullish" Fed testimony.